The latest IPCC report, which draws on more than 14,000 scientific studies, gives the most comprehensive and detailed picture yet of how climate change is altering the natural world. The report, which was released on 9 August 2021, has created dramatic and distressing headlines around the world as it outlines the true scale of the climate crisis now facing the global economy. Importantly the intergovernmental panel brings together representatives of world governments who appraise research by scientists, which means that most governments in the world buy into the reports’ findings and cannot claim to not be aware of the conclusions detailed therein.

We set out below some of the reports key findings and a few of our takeaway thoughts.

Key findings from the IPCC’s 2021 report

1. The world is on course to reach 1.5°C of warming within the next two decades. In the scenarios studied by the IPCC, there is a more than 50% chance that the 5°C target is reached or crossed between 2021 and 2040.
2. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century is still within reach, but requires transformational change. We must redefine the way in which we use and produce energy, make and consume goods and services, how we move around, how we keep cool and stay warm, and manage our land. Bill Gates puts it rather plainly in his book ‘How to Avoid a Climate Disaster’ - “We need to accomplish something gigantic we have never done before, much faster than we have ever done anything similar.”
3. There is improved knowledge in relation to climate science. It is now “unequivocal” that human-caused emissions are responsible for recent warming. Of the 1.1°C of warming we’ve seen since the pre-industrial era, the IPCC finds that less than 1°C is due to natural forces, such as volcanos or variations in the sun.
4. The changes we are already seeing are unprecedented in recent history and will affect every region of the In 2021 we have already seen several heatwave records being broken across Europe, Canada and the US. Germany and Belgium, accustomed to a mild climate rarely troubled by extreme weather, could not have anticipated how bad the floods in July turned out to be. Wildfires continue to rage in several places around the world, including Greece, Turkey, California and Siberia.
5. Human-induced warming has increased, and continues to increase. The intensity and/or

frequency of extreme weather events are now a real threat – regardless of what country you live in.

Now what?

With COP21 coming up, the IPCC report puts even more pressure on world leaders to agree on rapid coordinated action to tackle climate change. But what effect will the report have on climate change litigation? This year has already seen major legal successes related to climate change in courts in diverse jurisdictions.

At the end of April, judges from Germany’s highest court condemned the country’s Climate Protection Act as inadequate for failing to protect future generations from the impacts of climate change and demanded that the government strengthen the Act. Shortly after, the German government announced major changes to its climate targets, including cutting emissions by 65% by 2030 and eliminating net emissions by 2045. This is a perfect example of how legal cases can directly affect government policy.

In the Dutch courts, Shell was ordered to align its business with the Paris Agreement and cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030, relative to 2019 emissions. This includes the emissions associated with all the oil and gas it produces, even if it is burned by other companies or consumers.

However, these successful cases are still limited in number and most climate-related cases that rely on expert evidence linking specific greenhouse gas emissions to climate change impacts have been unsuccessful. Making a causal connection is key for the success of climate litigation, and currently there seems to be an “evidentiary gap” in climate litigation.

In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum and it could potentially be used to fill the evidence gap in climate litigation.

Rupert Stuart-Smith, researcher at the Oxford University sustainable law programme, and lead author of a study published in the peer-review journal Nature Climate Change in June 2021, said more climate-related cases were likely to be successful, as new science was making it possible to attribute the damages of climate breakdown more directly to companies’ activities.

“It’s no longer far-fetched to think that these companies can be taken to court successfully… The strength of evidence is bolstering these claims, and giving a firm evidentiary basis for these court cases” Rupert Stuart-Smith said.

Previously seen as a speculative attempt to get the courts to enforce climate action or merely to draw attention to the issue, lawsuits are forcing both governments and companies to take their climate related targets seriously. As described above, knowledge of climate science is stronger than ever, and on a global scale. The new IPCC report is an example of this. It now seems very clear that supported by the right scientific evidence – future cases will compel companies to pay compensation to communities impacted by climate change.